Clarida growth model
Investor appendix - January 2026
This document details how we reach €200k+ MRR within 3 years: the market opportunity, our sales assumptions, and the resulting customer and revenue projections.
Market context
Framing the €200k MRR target within our serviceable market
Why 2.2% is conservative
- Benchmark comparison: Successful vertical SaaS companies typically capture 5-15% of their serviceable market within 5 years. At 2.2% after 3 years, we're tracking below typical growth curves.
- Greenfield opportunity: No dominant incumbent in qPCR workflow software. Labs currently juggle spreadsheets and disconnected tools - we're not displacing a competitor, we're solving workflow fragmentation that costs labs time and quality.
Sales cycle & pricing
How long deals take to close and what customers pay by segment
Sales cycle time (months)
| Segment | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academic T1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Academic T2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Academic T3 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| Commercial T1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Commercial T2 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| Commercial T3 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 13 |
Cycle times are primarily driven by deal size: T1 (single PI) closes fastest, T3 (core facilities/enterprise) involves more stakeholders. Commercial adds overhead from security reviews and budget cycles.
Why cycles shorten over time: As our product matures (more integrations, validated workflows) and sales process improves (case studies, reference customers, streamlined demos), evaluation periods compress and buyer confidence increases.
Monthly contract value (€/month)
| Segment | T1 | T2 | T3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Academic | €400 | €1,100 | €1,700 |
| Commercial | €1,600 | €4,300 | €6,300 |
Tiers reflect lab throughput: T1 (single PI), T2 (multi-group), T3 (core facility / enterprise). Commercial premium reflects compliance and support needs.
Value-based pricing philosophy
Clarida prices based on value delivered to customers, not development costs or competitor benchmarks. We follow the Rule of 10: customers should receive roughly 10× the value relative to what they pay.
Industry benchmark: B2B SaaS typically captures 10-20% of delivered value. At ~8% value capture, Clarida's pricing ensures customers see obvious, defensible ROI.
Why this works for Clarida: Value-based pricing succeeds when competition is low (at the outcome level) and buyers are sophisticated. Our customers - scientists, lab managers, PIs - understand the cost of failed experiments, wasted time, and delayed decisions. They can evaluate ROI. And no competitor offers an integrated, end-to-end workflow system that delivers these outcomes. That combination makes "fair share of value" pricing both credible and defensible.
Conversion rates
These rates are based on founder-led sales benchmarks in technical B2B. The 4% outreach-to-meeting rate accounts for cold outreach to busy researchers.
1. The outcome
Our model projects 154 customers and €216k MRR by March 2029. Here's the trajectory.
Customer growth projection
Academic and commercial customer acquisition (Jan 2026 - Mar 2029)
Key insights
- Starting from zero: First customers acquired in March 2026, reaching 154 total customers by March 2029.
- Academic-led growth: Academic customers lead early adoption, establishing market presence before commercial expansion.
- Balanced portfolio: Over time, commercial customers grow to represent a meaningful share of the base, diversifying revenue sources.
MRR growth projection
Academic and commercial monthly recurring revenue (Jan 2026 - Mar 2029)
Key insights
- Path to €200k: Total MRR grows from zero to €216k by March 2029, exceeding the €200k target.
- Revenue follows customers: Academic revenue dominates early, with commercial revenue accelerating as larger contracts come online.
- Higher commercial value: Commercial customers contribute disproportionately to revenue relative to their share of the customer base.
2. The engine
A predictable sales funnel converts outreach into signed contracts. Here's how it works.
Sales funnel
Conversion rates at scale (based on 600 monthly outreach touches)
Key insights
- Predictable conversion engine: Each stage has consistent conversion rates, allowing us to forecast pipeline outcomes from outreach volume.
- High close rates: Once a prospect reaches the contract stage, 95% sign, reflecting effective qualification earlier in the funnel.
- Scalable model: Outreach capacity grows from 200 touches/month in 2026 to 800 in 2029, proportionally scaling signed contracts.
Outreach volume by segment
Monthly outreach touches by tier - a touch is one contact attempt; each prospect receives 8-12 touches on average
Key insights
- 4x scaling: Total monthly outreach grows from 200 touches in 2026 to 800 in 2029. At ~10 touches per prospect, that's ~20 new prospects/month in 2026 scaling to ~80 in 2029.
- Strategic mix shift: Early focus on Academic T1/T2 for quick wins, then gradually increasing Commercial and higher-tier outreach as the team matures.
- Higher-value targeting: By 2029, T3 segments (academic and commercial) represent a significant share of outreach, reflecting confidence in enterprise sales motion.
3. The flywheel
Renewals create a compounding base that reduces dependence on new acquisition over time.
Customer source: new vs renewals
Percentage distribution by source - renewals bypass the sales funnel entirely
Key insights
- Growing renewal base: By Q1 2029, renewals nearly match new acquisitions (~49%), half the customer activity bypasses the sales funnel entirely.
- Compounding effect: Despite churn, retained customers accumulate over time, building a recurring base that reduces dependence on outbound acquisition.
- Sales team leverage: As the renewal share grows, sales capacity can focus on new logos and higher-value segments rather than replacing churned customers.
Annual churn rates (%)
| Segment | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academic T1 | 25% | 22% | 20% | 18% |
| Academic T2 | 18% | 15% | 13% | 12% |
| Academic T3 | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% |
| Commercial T1 | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% |
| Commercial T2 | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6.5% |
| Commercial T3 | 6% | 5.5% | 5% | 4.5% |
Why churn decreases over time: Early churn reflects incomplete adoption, not a better alternative. As Clarida matures, it integrates with LIMS, ELN, and instrument software, becoming part of lab infrastructure rather than a standalone tool. Switching costs rise, the product becomes an essential data backbone, and a strong user experience builds habit and loyalty.
4. The details
A deeper look at segment composition and unit economics.
Customer distribution by segment
Percentage breakdown by tier (Jan 2026 - Mar 2029)
Key insights
- Early focus on Tier 1: Initial growth concentrated in entry-level academic customers, establishing product-market fit.
- Tier expansion over time: Higher tiers (T2, T3) grow as customers upgrade and new enterprise accounts come onboard.
- Commercial diversification: Commercial segment broadens from T1-only to include T2 and eventually T3 by 2029.
MRR distribution by segment
Revenue percentage breakdown by tier (Jan 2026 - Mar 2029)
Key insights
- Revenue concentration in higher tiers: Despite fewer customers, T2 and T3 contribute a growing share of total revenue.
- Commercial T2 acceleration: Commercial T2 becomes a significant revenue driver in the later years.
- Academic foundation: Academic tiers provide steady, predictable base revenue while commercial tiers drive upside.
Weighted MCV trend
Monthly contract value trend (Jan 2026 - Mar 2029)
Key insights
- What is weighted MCV? The average monthly value per customer, weighted by contract size. It reflects both pricing and the types of customers we attract.
Example: In December 2028 we project €178k MRR from 134 customers across our three pricing tiers, giving a weighted average MCV of €1,330. - Steady growth trajectory: From late 2026 onward, weighted MCV grows from €884 to €1,400 by March 2029, a 58% increase over 2.5 years.
- Why it grows: As we scale, the customer base shifts from academic to commercial and from lower to higher-value tiers. This natural mix evolution drives contract values up over time.